1. T/F - HVCC prohibits REALTORS and lenders from talking to appraisers.
2. T/F - A lender is required to use an appraiser management company (AMC) to get an appraisal.
3. T/F - Lenders are required to choose appraisers from a rotating roster approved by Fannie or Freddie.
4. T/F - The Code applies to all mortgages that require an appraisal.
5. T/F - HVCC requires an appraisal where a lender was previously under no requirement to obtain one.
6. T/F - A mortgage broker may select the appraiser.
7. T/F - A mortgage broker may not transfer an appraisal from one lender to another.
8. T/F - Borrowers must use a credit card upfront to pay fro an appraisal.
9. T/F - A borrower may pay the appraiser directly.
Answers are coming in a minute....
Showing posts with label Market Update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Update. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Going Boldly Into the New Year
The big question on everyone’s mind, going into January, was: “Would January be a replay of last year; or will we continue our fragile recovery?”
The answer, in a word, “both”.
January sales pushed the 300 unit number and were up 18% compared to January ’09…remembering that January ’09 was one of our worst months in more than a decade.
January ‘10 sales were 25% down from December ’09. Historically, January does lag behind December.
Pending sales in January up were up 25% from December to 766. Is this the result of the Home buyer Tax Credit extension? To some extent… Remember that our affordability is better than ever; mortgage rates are near 30 year lows and our population continues to grow.
Almost half of our sales continue to be in the price range of the First Time Buyer. In January 48% of homes sold were <$160,000.
Median home price increased by 1% compared to December to $169,000. This is the highest our median has been since August ’09. This is like a result of several factors. Inventory continues to shrink. Competition for the lower priced inventory is growing….and there’s that tax credit.
Inventory continues to decline. In January there were 2,991 active listings. This is the lowest it’s been since April of ’06. New inventory coming on is in the prime price.
Half of all homes sold in January were less than $160,000.
We have seen positive developments in the 1st couple of weeks that suggest the Feds are making some moves that may nurse along our recovery.
NAR succeeded in convincing FHA to eliminate what was known as “anti-flipping” rules. Investors no longer have to hold a property for 90 days after closing.
Call it three birds with one stone: The federal government hopes simultaneously to help low-down-payment home buyers, investors who fix up foreclosures, and local communities burdened with too many bank-owned and foreclosed homes -- all with one potentially far-reaching policy change.
The FHA maintained its 90-day anti-flipping rule through much of the last decade. But now it's suspending the policy, at least for the next year.
The objective is to speed sales of renovated houses to first-time buyers and other purchasers. With foreclosures at record levels -- an estimated 2.8 million filings last year alone -- many communities are faced with excesses of bank-owned properties sitting unsold, often in poor repair.
By waiving the 90-day rule, private investors will be more likely to bid on these houses, fix them up and sell them to buyers who will now be able to gain early access to FHA financing, which offers 3.5% down payments.
NAR also just announced a joint effort with the National Community Stabilization Trust to reclaim neighborhoods wracked by high levels of foreclosed and abandoned property, property disinvestment, extremely low prices and low resident confidence.
The National Community Stabilization Trust is a nonprofit organization that facilitates the transfer of foreclosed and abandoned properties from financial institutions nationwide to local housing organizations, and provides access to financing in order to promote productive property reuse and neighborhood stability.
The only “fly” in our ointment is the number of distressed properties. Short sales and foreclosures continue to increase now topping 60%.
There are efforts underway to try to improve the process, but the fact remains, many of our neighbors cannot afford to keep their homes. Without an improvement to our employment picture…things can only get so much better.
The answer, in a word, “both”.
January sales pushed the 300 unit number and were up 18% compared to January ’09…remembering that January ’09 was one of our worst months in more than a decade.
January ‘10 sales were 25% down from December ’09. Historically, January does lag behind December.
Pending sales in January up were up 25% from December to 766. Is this the result of the Home buyer Tax Credit extension? To some extent… Remember that our affordability is better than ever; mortgage rates are near 30 year lows and our population continues to grow.
Almost half of our sales continue to be in the price range of the First Time Buyer. In January 48% of homes sold were <$160,000.
Median home price increased by 1% compared to December to $169,000. This is the highest our median has been since August ’09. This is like a result of several factors. Inventory continues to shrink. Competition for the lower priced inventory is growing….and there’s that tax credit.
Inventory continues to decline. In January there were 2,991 active listings. This is the lowest it’s been since April of ’06. New inventory coming on is in the prime price.
Half of all homes sold in January were less than $160,000.
We have seen positive developments in the 1st couple of weeks that suggest the Feds are making some moves that may nurse along our recovery.
NAR succeeded in convincing FHA to eliminate what was known as “anti-flipping” rules. Investors no longer have to hold a property for 90 days after closing.
Call it three birds with one stone: The federal government hopes simultaneously to help low-down-payment home buyers, investors who fix up foreclosures, and local communities burdened with too many bank-owned and foreclosed homes -- all with one potentially far-reaching policy change.
The FHA maintained its 90-day anti-flipping rule through much of the last decade. But now it's suspending the policy, at least for the next year.
The objective is to speed sales of renovated houses to first-time buyers and other purchasers. With foreclosures at record levels -- an estimated 2.8 million filings last year alone -- many communities are faced with excesses of bank-owned properties sitting unsold, often in poor repair.
By waiving the 90-day rule, private investors will be more likely to bid on these houses, fix them up and sell them to buyers who will now be able to gain early access to FHA financing, which offers 3.5% down payments.
NAR also just announced a joint effort with the National Community Stabilization Trust to reclaim neighborhoods wracked by high levels of foreclosed and abandoned property, property disinvestment, extremely low prices and low resident confidence.
The National Community Stabilization Trust is a nonprofit organization that facilitates the transfer of foreclosed and abandoned properties from financial institutions nationwide to local housing organizations, and provides access to financing in order to promote productive property reuse and neighborhood stability.
The only “fly” in our ointment is the number of distressed properties. Short sales and foreclosures continue to increase now topping 60%.
There are efforts underway to try to improve the process, but the fact remains, many of our neighbors cannot afford to keep their homes. Without an improvement to our employment picture…things can only get so much better.
Friday, February 5, 2010
The F-35 Story
One of Idaho's most significant prospective economic development projects - potentially securing 3,000 jobs - is nearing a decision and we need your help.
The U.S. Air Force has short-listed both Mountain Home Air Force Base and Boise's Gowen Field as possible locations for the F-35 fighter aircraft. These new missions would secure operations at these bases for the next 50 years. This is no small matter, as these two military installations together provide more than $1.0 billion to the Idaho economy each year. If our bases are not chosen, their current missions could face phasing out in coming years, putting jobs and economic benefits at risk.
Here is how you can help: A series of environmental scoping meetings (in an open house format) will be held throughout February. We ask that you attend the most convenient one to learn more about the missions. Comment cards will be available so you can express your support. A schedule of these meetings is attached.
Idaho's bases have already made the short list for these new operations; please help us pass this next critical hurdle.
More information on Idaho's quest for F-35 missions can be found at www.idahof35.com when that site launches on Feb. 5.
The U.S. Air Force has short-listed both Mountain Home Air Force Base and Boise's Gowen Field as possible locations for the F-35 fighter aircraft. These new missions would secure operations at these bases for the next 50 years. This is no small matter, as these two military installations together provide more than $1.0 billion to the Idaho economy each year. If our bases are not chosen, their current missions could face phasing out in coming years, putting jobs and economic benefits at risk.
Here is how you can help: A series of environmental scoping meetings (in an open house format) will be held throughout February. We ask that you attend the most convenient one to learn more about the missions. Comment cards will be available so you can express your support. A schedule of these meetings is attached.
Idaho's bases have already made the short list for these new operations; please help us pass this next critical hurdle.
More information on Idaho's quest for F-35 missions can be found at www.idahof35.com
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
November Homes Sales Increase 100% Over 2008
But then again...November '08 home sales were the lowest (269) in a very long time.
Total homes sold in November were 533; up 98% compared to last year. What a difference 12 months and a Home Buyer Tax Credit makes!
Typically sales in November lessen as the year nears end. Over the last 4 years the average change in sales from October to November is -9%. (This excludes last year's 36% plunge.)
November '09 sales were 9% down from October. Consistent with what we would expect. Pending sales in November were 649.
First time home buyers continue to drive our market. The announcement of the Tax Credit extension and its expansion to include current homeowners should enable us to continue to move in the positive direction. 44% of homes sold in November were <$160,000.
The fundamental demand for housing is driven by jobs. What happens in our employment market will determine how long this modest recovery can continue. Anecdotally...there are signs that some Valley employers are getting stronger. Mandatory overtime, longer hours, reinstatement of pay cuts...all are happening now.
Median home price nudged up 1% from October to $159,700. Existing homes continue to hold their value relatively well. New homes median reversed its downward slide as it increased from $147,390 in October '09 to $149,900 in November.
Inventory has dropped under 3,000 homes for the first time since May of '06. We now have less than 5 months of inventory (existing and new) in our most demanded price category. Likely this is supporting the tenuous grip median sales price is holding to.
Market pace increased in November as days on market fell to 76.
On the less positive side...as you saw in the Statesman yesterday, distressed properties continue to hurt our friends and family. Among all active listings, 46% are either short sales, in foreclosure or REO's. 37% of all November sales were also distressed. Although this less than the 45% we were experiencing last March, it is too high.
Our community offers resources to help families in housing crisis that we sometimes overlook. Neighborhood Housing Service's Foreclosure Prevention Counseling program continues to have a greater than 90% rate of success in helping our neighbors avoid foreclosure. Its completely free to homeowners. Click here for more information and an intake package that must be completed before counseling can begin.
What I'm hearing about December is good. Buyer interest, offer presentations and closings are all up. The key is going to be how supportive our lender partners will be.
Yesterday President Obama chided the banks for poor results in assisting in our recovery...comparing them to "overpaid ball players who've had a bad season". “Given the difficulty that businesspeople are having as lending has declined, and given the exceptional assistance banks received to get them through a difficult time, we expect them to explore every responsible way to help get our economy moving again.”
Total homes sold in November were 533; up 98% compared to last year. What a difference 12 months and a Home Buyer Tax Credit makes!
Typically sales in November lessen as the year nears end. Over the last 4 years the average change in sales from October to November is -9%. (This excludes last year's 36% plunge.)
November '09 sales were 9% down from October. Consistent with what we would expect. Pending sales in November were 649.
First time home buyers continue to drive our market. The announcement of the Tax Credit extension and its expansion to include current homeowners should enable us to continue to move in the positive direction. 44% of homes sold in November were <$160,000.
The fundamental demand for housing is driven by jobs. What happens in our employment market will determine how long this modest recovery can continue. Anecdotally...there are signs that some Valley employers are getting stronger. Mandatory overtime, longer hours, reinstatement of pay cuts...all are happening now.
Median home price nudged up 1% from October to $159,700. Existing homes continue to hold their value relatively well. New homes median reversed its downward slide as it increased from $147,390 in October '09 to $149,900 in November.
Inventory has dropped under 3,000 homes for the first time since May of '06. We now have less than 5 months of inventory (existing and new) in our most demanded price category. Likely this is supporting the tenuous grip median sales price is holding to.
Market pace increased in November as days on market fell to 76.
On the less positive side...as you saw in the Statesman yesterday, distressed properties continue to hurt our friends and family. Among all active listings, 46% are either short sales, in foreclosure or REO's. 37% of all November sales were also distressed. Although this less than the 45% we were experiencing last March, it is too high.
Our community offers resources to help families in housing crisis that we sometimes overlook. Neighborhood Housing Service's Foreclosure Prevention Counseling program continues to have a greater than 90% rate of success in helping our neighbors avoid foreclosure. Its completely free to homeowners. Click here for more information and an intake package that must be completed before counseling can begin.
What I'm hearing about December is good. Buyer interest, offer presentations and closings are all up. The key is going to be how supportive our lender partners will be.
Yesterday President Obama chided the banks for poor results in assisting in our recovery...comparing them to "overpaid ball players who've had a bad season". “Given the difficulty that businesspeople are having as lending has declined, and given the exceptional assistance banks received to get them through a difficult time, we expect them to explore every responsible way to help get our economy moving again.”
Friday, December 11, 2009
November Sales Show Continuing Recovery!
Preliminary numbers are in for November and they are very solid.
First of all, we have to remember that the announcement of the tax credit extension didn't come until well into November. So, there was real impetus to try to close as quickly as possible...
Total sales are 533 homes. This is nearly a 100% increase compared to November 2008 sales of 269!
Our median sales price held firm at $155,000. This is down 15% from 2008. New home's median actually went up about $2,000 from October.
Days on market is holding at about 84 days. Not much change form '08 or from what we've seen the last few months.
Homes in the price range of <$160,000 accounted for 36% of all sales in November.
The full data set will be available later today. Watch for an updated commentary later.
First of all, we have to remember that the announcement of the tax credit extension didn't come until well into November. So, there was real impetus to try to close as quickly as possible...
Total sales are 533 homes. This is nearly a 100% increase compared to November 2008 sales of 269!
Our median sales price held firm at $155,000. This is down 15% from 2008. New home's median actually went up about $2,000 from October.
Days on market is holding at about 84 days. Not much change form '08 or from what we've seen the last few months.
Homes in the price range of <$160,000 accounted for 36% of all sales in November.
The full data set will be available later today. Watch for an updated commentary later.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
NAR Survey Shows First-Time Home Buyers Set Record in Past Year
San Diego, November 13, 2009
First-time home buyers reached the highest market share on record during the past year, according to the latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers. The study was released here today at the 2009 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.
The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is the latest in a series of large national NAR surveys evaluating demographics, preferences, marketing and experiences of recent home buyers and sellers. Among national surveys, NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is unprecedented in size and scope.
Paul Bishop, NAR vice president of research, said several factors have been at play. “Tax incentives, record high affordability conditions and a pent-up demand brought a record share of first-time home buyers into the market,” he said. “These buyers are critical to housing and a general economic recovery because the market always heals from the bottom up – they absorb inventory, free existing owners to make a trade and stimulate related goods and services.”
The number of first-time home buyers rose to 47 percent of all home sales from 41 percent of transactions in last year’s study, and was the highest on record dating back to 1981. The previous high was 44 percent in 1991. “It’s interesting to note the last cyclical peak of first-time home buyers was during the last noteworthy economic downturn, with first-time buyers starting the chain reaction that led the nation out of recession,” Bishop said.
Read the rest of the story
First-time home buyers reached the highest market share on record during the past year, according to the latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers. The study was released here today at the 2009 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.
The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is the latest in a series of large national NAR surveys evaluating demographics, preferences, marketing and experiences of recent home buyers and sellers. Among national surveys, NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is unprecedented in size and scope.
Paul Bishop, NAR vice president of research, said several factors have been at play. “Tax incentives, record high affordability conditions and a pent-up demand brought a record share of first-time home buyers into the market,” he said. “These buyers are critical to housing and a general economic recovery because the market always heals from the bottom up – they absorb inventory, free existing owners to make a trade and stimulate related goods and services.”
The number of first-time home buyers rose to 47 percent of all home sales from 41 percent of transactions in last year’s study, and was the highest on record dating back to 1981. The previous high was 44 percent in 1991. “It’s interesting to note the last cyclical peak of first-time home buyers was during the last noteworthy economic downturn, with first-time buyers starting the chain reaction that led the nation out of recession,” Bishop said.
Read the rest of the story
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
October Market in Review - Sure is Better Than Last October
After a few pretty tense weeks, REALTORS® succeeded in getting Congress and President Obama to do the right thing on behalf of American homebuyers.
On Friday, November 6, The Home buyer Tax Credit was extended to April 30, 2010 and expanded to include current homeowners (with certain qualifications; see Nov. 5 post for details).
No wonder then, that October sales numbers were strong.
Sales in October were up 7% over September and up a whopping 45% over October ’08. But, to be fair to the memory challenged among us, Oct. ’08 was the month when the consumer confidence was at its lowest; the stock market was crashing and pundits predicted we were entering the next Great Depression.
Month over month sales in ’09 have now been up for 9 out of 10 months. Total sales are up more than 200% from January of this year.
Median price declined from $165,000 to $155,000 in October. Digging into this number a little deeper reveals a couple of interesting points. Existing homes are tenaciously holding on to their value – declining only $2,000 from September to $160,000. At the same time new homes median dropped from $168,990 to $147,390. This is the first time that news homes median has been less than the median for existing homes. There are likely several reasons for such a decline; higher foreclosure and short sales, deep discounting and the trend in new construction is for homes in the lower price range.
Inventory fell to its lowest number since May ’06. Our highest inventory number was 5198 in July ’07. We are nearly one-third less than that record amount. Compared to October ’08 we are 25% less. Translating that into months of inventory on hand; we are at less than 7 months. (combined new and resale). This is 50% reduction from January ’09.We have traditionally defined “market equilibrium” as 6 months of available inventory. In October we are at 6.3 months overall.
Measuring the impact of the first time home buyer tax credit; NAR recently reported that the Tax Credit will result in an additional 1million sales this year. In Ada County, sales of homes under $160,000 account for almost 40% of all sales. This is up 12% from January ’09.In this price category, inventory is even scarcer. Inventory of new homes under $160,000 is at 5 months. Inventory of existing homes under $160,000 is at 4.6 months.Short sales in October were 14% of all sales; down slightly form September. REO sales in October increased to 22%; up 4% from September.
Pending sales continue to forecast a solid future. At the end of September there were 876 pending sales. This is down by about 7% from September.In theory, the expansion of the Tax Credit to current homeowners should enable more move-up buyers.
NAR ‘s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun told us last month that, because of the incredible affordability and continued low interest rates there are now 5 million more renters that qualify to buy than there were in 2000.
The Tax Credit expires at the end of April…for real this time. Spring will come quickly.
On Friday, November 6, The Home buyer Tax Credit was extended to April 30, 2010 and expanded to include current homeowners (with certain qualifications; see Nov. 5 post for details).
No wonder then, that October sales numbers were strong.
Sales in October were up 7% over September and up a whopping 45% over October ’08. But, to be fair to the memory challenged among us, Oct. ’08 was the month when the consumer confidence was at its lowest; the stock market was crashing and pundits predicted we were entering the next Great Depression.
Month over month sales in ’09 have now been up for 9 out of 10 months. Total sales are up more than 200% from January of this year.
Median price declined from $165,000 to $155,000 in October. Digging into this number a little deeper reveals a couple of interesting points. Existing homes are tenaciously holding on to their value – declining only $2,000 from September to $160,000. At the same time new homes median dropped from $168,990 to $147,390. This is the first time that news homes median has been less than the median for existing homes. There are likely several reasons for such a decline; higher foreclosure and short sales, deep discounting and the trend in new construction is for homes in the lower price range.
Inventory fell to its lowest number since May ’06. Our highest inventory number was 5198 in July ’07. We are nearly one-third less than that record amount. Compared to October ’08 we are 25% less. Translating that into months of inventory on hand; we are at less than 7 months. (combined new and resale). This is 50% reduction from January ’09.We have traditionally defined “market equilibrium” as 6 months of available inventory. In October we are at 6.3 months overall.
Measuring the impact of the first time home buyer tax credit; NAR recently reported that the Tax Credit will result in an additional 1million sales this year. In Ada County, sales of homes under $160,000 account for almost 40% of all sales. This is up 12% from January ’09.In this price category, inventory is even scarcer. Inventory of new homes under $160,000 is at 5 months. Inventory of existing homes under $160,000 is at 4.6 months.Short sales in October were 14% of all sales; down slightly form September. REO sales in October increased to 22%; up 4% from September.
Pending sales continue to forecast a solid future. At the end of September there were 876 pending sales. This is down by about 7% from September.In theory, the expansion of the Tax Credit to current homeowners should enable more move-up buyers.
NAR ‘s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun told us last month that, because of the incredible affordability and continued low interest rates there are now 5 million more renters that qualify to buy than there were in 2000.
The Tax Credit expires at the end of April…for real this time. Spring will come quickly.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
What's New from the Boise Valley Economic Partnership
Council met this morning. Every segment of Valley commerce is there: cities, counties, airport, power, commercial, builders Realtors, finance, chambers of commerce...you get the idea.
We've been hosting a site visit a week for last month. Mood is that once the credit becomes available, more companies will "pull the trigger" on expansion(in Boise).
Project update - as of last week the German company (700 employees) is still trying to decide. They were just involved in big acquisition (took over another company) and had to put US project on hold. We are still one of only two locations in consideration.
A Fortune 50 company is looking at a build-to-suit site here. They would bring 500 jobs.
BVEP legislative priorities are to work with counties to improve tax abatement process.
Also working to reduce corp tax rates. Gonna be tough with this budget.
BVEP has strategy to reverse tech sector employment contraction. We need to expand the work being done at BSU to create renewed interest. BSU is a national force in 3 research areas...smart materials, sensors and geophysics. But we need to expand lab and research
Some of the projects they are researching include: adding dna to ceramics (nanotech); creating ceramic fuel cells that make hydrogen for cars.
BSU is the single largest geophysics research project on earth's shallow surface. Huge interest area for oil companies.
The Chamber is hosting an Economic Outlook Forum on Nov 10 with BSUs Pres.
We've been hosting a site visit a week for last month. Mood is that once the credit becomes available, more companies will "pull the trigger" on expansion(in Boise).
Project update - as of last week the German company (700 employees) is still trying to decide. They were just involved in big acquisition (took over another company) and had to put US project on hold. We are still one of only two locations in consideration.
A Fortune 50 company is looking at a build-to-suit site here. They would bring 500 jobs.
BVEP legislative priorities are to work with counties to improve tax abatement process.
Also working to reduce corp tax rates. Gonna be tough with this budget.
BVEP has strategy to reverse tech sector employment contraction. We need to expand the work being done at BSU to create renewed interest. BSU is a national force in 3 research areas...smart materials, sensors and geophysics. But we need to expand lab and research
Some of the projects they are researching include: adding dna to ceramics (nanotech); creating ceramic fuel cells that make hydrogen for cars.
BSU is the single largest geophysics research project on earth's shallow surface. Huge interest area for oil companies.
The Chamber is hosting an Economic Outlook Forum on Nov 10 with BSUs Pres.
Idaho Conference on Housing is Next Week
Join us for lively discussions with our workshop panelists and speakers, including Idaho's First Lady Lori Otter, member of the Idaho Meth Project Advisory Council, on dealing with crime and drugs in your community at the 2009 Idaho Conference on Housing at the Doubletree Hotel Boise-Riverside on October 19 and 20, 2009.
Friday, October 16 at 2:00p.m. will be the last opportunity to register online!
Registration Fees:
$125 Nonprofit/government
$175 Regular
Workshops and Presentations Include:
* Housing Crisis and Statewide Housing Conditions
* Housing Fraud: What it Means to you
* Neighborhood Stabilization - What's being done in your community
* Mayors Weigh in on the Link between Housing, Transportation, and Economic Development
* Experts will discuss what the future trends and key issues will be in Idaho
* And much more...click here to view the complete agenda.
Friday, October 16 at 2:00p.m. will be the last opportunity to register online!
Registration Fees:
$125 Nonprofit/government
$175 Regular
Workshops and Presentations Include:
* Housing Crisis and Statewide Housing Conditions
* Housing Fraud: What it Means to you
* Neighborhood Stabilization - What's being done in your community
* Mayors Weigh in on the Link between Housing, Transportation, and Economic Development
* Experts will discuss what the future trends and key issues will be in Idaho
* And much more...click here to view the complete agenda.
Monday, October 12, 2009
September Numbers Are In - And They're Good!
It is clear that buyers are getting the message.
I attended a “Finally Home” first time buyer seminar for 3 evenings last week. Gary Archer, the instructor, said: “There will never be a time in your life when real estate is a better buy.”
By the way, do your buyer clients the best favor you can. Get them in the Finally Home program. I Tweeted from class: “We think they know so much more than they really do”. I’m standing by that.
Sales in September were up 4% over August ‘09 and up 8% over September ’08.
So far in ’09 month over month sales have been up 8 months out of 9. Total monthly volume for September is nearly 2 ½ times what it was last January.
Median price in September slipped to $165,000 from Augusts’ $171,872. Most of this is from the number of short sales that closed.
Inventory fell to its lowest number since June ’06. Our highest inventory number was 5198 in July ’07. We are nearly one-third less than that record amount. Compared to September ’08 we are 15% less. Translating that into months of inventory on hand; we are at less than 7 months. (combined new and resale). This is 50% reduction from January ’09.
We have traditionally defined “market equilibrium” as 6 months of available inventory.
Measuring the impact of the first time home buyer tax credit; NAR recently reported that this category of buyer typically accounted for 45-48% of total sales. Nationally, the number is now over 50% of all sales.
In Ada County, sales of homes under $160,000 account for 32% of all inventory. This is up 20% from January ’09.
In September 45% of all sales were houses under $160,000.
In this price category, inventory is even scarcer. Inventory of new homes under $160,000 is at 4.35 months. Inventory of existing homes under $160,000 is at 4.6 months.
Short sales in September were 15% of all sales. REO sales in September accounted for just over 18% of total sales. This is down slightly from August and down 14% from our high in March.
Pending sales continue to forecast a solid future. At the end of September there were 975 pending sales.
Now, if we can just get Congress to do the right thing and extend the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, we're going to continue this recovery.
I attended a “Finally Home” first time buyer seminar for 3 evenings last week. Gary Archer, the instructor, said: “There will never be a time in your life when real estate is a better buy.”
By the way, do your buyer clients the best favor you can. Get them in the Finally Home program. I Tweeted from class: “We think they know so much more than they really do”. I’m standing by that.
Sales in September were up 4% over August ‘09 and up 8% over September ’08.
So far in ’09 month over month sales have been up 8 months out of 9. Total monthly volume for September is nearly 2 ½ times what it was last January.
Median price in September slipped to $165,000 from Augusts’ $171,872. Most of this is from the number of short sales that closed.
Inventory fell to its lowest number since June ’06. Our highest inventory number was 5198 in July ’07. We are nearly one-third less than that record amount. Compared to September ’08 we are 15% less. Translating that into months of inventory on hand; we are at less than 7 months. (combined new and resale). This is 50% reduction from January ’09.
We have traditionally defined “market equilibrium” as 6 months of available inventory.
Measuring the impact of the first time home buyer tax credit; NAR recently reported that this category of buyer typically accounted for 45-48% of total sales. Nationally, the number is now over 50% of all sales.
In Ada County, sales of homes under $160,000 account for 32% of all inventory. This is up 20% from January ’09.
In September 45% of all sales were houses under $160,000.
In this price category, inventory is even scarcer. Inventory of new homes under $160,000 is at 4.35 months. Inventory of existing homes under $160,000 is at 4.6 months.
Short sales in September were 15% of all sales. REO sales in September accounted for just over 18% of total sales. This is down slightly from August and down 14% from our high in March.
Pending sales continue to forecast a solid future. At the end of September there were 975 pending sales.
Now, if we can just get Congress to do the right thing and extend the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, we're going to continue this recovery.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
August, Come She Must
There's an old rhyme meant to help us predict the hurricane season: "June, too soon; July, stand by; August, come she must..."
The big question going into the dog days of summer was: "Would August continue the momentum of the previous two months?"
The answer is a resounding "Yes".
Sales are up 2% from last month; and up 8% from this same month last year. This is the third month in a row for an increase over last year's same month. This three month trend reverses 35 months of year-over-year decreases. We are likely to look back at the Summer of '09 as the season of our comeback.
Pending sales also continue to climb. Last month there were 51% more Pendings than the same month last year - now there are 63% more pendings. Even New Construction Pendings are 23% above last year.
Short Sales and REO's are up slightly. Short sales were 15%. REO sales are were 20%.That makes 35% of the sales in August "distressed". Our high was 48% in Feb, 45% in March, & 44% in April.
There are some indications that more short sales are being closed.
Median home price continues to hover in the $170k to $175k range. In August the median was $171,000. This is down 2% from July and 17% from '08. There was a jump in new home median in August compared to July; up 7%. Looking back at July we observed a big drop in new home median. August seems to correct that.
Affordability is at its best ever!
Inventory is now back to 2006 levels. We now have 7.5 months of available inventory; 3289 resale and 755 new homes.
Lastly...home prices seem to be firming up. This discount between listing price and final sales price decreased to 2.9%
The big question going into the dog days of summer was: "Would August continue the momentum of the previous two months?"
The answer is a resounding "Yes".
Sales are up 2% from last month; and up 8% from this same month last year. This is the third month in a row for an increase over last year's same month. This three month trend reverses 35 months of year-over-year decreases. We are likely to look back at the Summer of '09 as the season of our comeback.
Pending sales also continue to climb. Last month there were 51% more Pendings than the same month last year - now there are 63% more pendings. Even New Construction Pendings are 23% above last year.
Short Sales and REO's are up slightly. Short sales were 15%. REO sales are were 20%.That makes 35% of the sales in August "distressed". Our high was 48% in Feb, 45% in March, & 44% in April.
There are some indications that more short sales are being closed.
Median home price continues to hover in the $170k to $175k range. In August the median was $171,000. This is down 2% from July and 17% from '08. There was a jump in new home median in August compared to July; up 7%. Looking back at July we observed a big drop in new home median. August seems to correct that.
Affordability is at its best ever!
Inventory is now back to 2006 levels. We now have 7.5 months of available inventory; 3289 resale and 755 new homes.
Lastly...home prices seem to be firming up. This discount between listing price and final sales price decreased to 2.9%
Friday, June 12, 2009
Top 10 Best Places to Live
U.S. News & World Reportmagazine looked at areas with strong economies, low living costs, and plenty of fun things to do to identify this year's best places to live.
The editors reviewed more than 2,000 locations nationwide, considering such factors as sales taxes, housing prices, average number of children per square mile, proximity to healthcare, and the availability of educational institutions. Readers can use a database search to tailor the results to their own situation.
"Choosing where to live is a difficult decision for any family," says Brian Kelly, editor of U.S. News & World Report. "With U.S. News's Best Places to Live, we've crunched the most important geographic, economic, and educational data and provided the search tools to help make this decision a little easier for families."
The 10 cities honored as Best Places to Live are (listed alphabetically):
Albuquerque, N.M.
Auburn, Ala.
Austin, Texas
Boise, Idaho
Durham, N.C.
La Crosse, Wis.
Loveland, Colo.
San Luis Obispo, Calif.
St. Augustine, Fla.
Upper St. Clair, Pa.
The editors reviewed more than 2,000 locations nationwide, considering such factors as sales taxes, housing prices, average number of children per square mile, proximity to healthcare, and the availability of educational institutions. Readers can use a database search to tailor the results to their own situation.
"Choosing where to live is a difficult decision for any family," says Brian Kelly, editor of U.S. News & World Report. "With U.S. News's Best Places to Live, we've crunched the most important geographic, economic, and educational data and provided the search tools to help make this decision a little easier for families."
The 10 cities honored as Best Places to Live are (listed alphabetically):
Albuquerque, N.M.
Auburn, Ala.
Austin, Texas
Boise, Idaho
Durham, N.C.
La Crosse, Wis.
Loveland, Colo.
San Luis Obispo, Calif.
St. Augustine, Fla.
Upper St. Clair, Pa.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Market Update January 2009 Part 1
In mid 2008, I told you that I believed our real estate market was very fragile but showing positive indicators. Then for the following 6 to 7 months, we had positive month over month sales. We’ve had inventory reductions for 7 straight months, and in the last 6 months our inventory has stayed below last year’s levels. That is a solid predictor of improving conditions. Our home values even held on to 96% of their value through July and they only slipped 4% in the 4th quarter. And, Idaho had the best 3rd qtr over 2nd qtr sales improvement in the country.
The fact is, if you bought an existing home in Ada County in December 2006 for $185,000 it has appreciated 6% as of December 2008. That is not exactly wildfire returns, but it is better than my 401k has done.
Unfortunately, as predicted, all we needed was one or two negatives to push our recovery off track. The collapse of consumer confidence and near elimination of credit in October and November while unemployment rose derailed our ’08 recovery train and our November sales were under 300.
December, by the way, showed better sales than November and inventory continues to shrink.
So, where are we now and what’s going to happen next?
First…The fundamental things that make this a great place to live haven’t changed. This is still the same place that was recognized again and again in 2008 as one of the best family and business locations in the country.
Second…NAR’s efforts in Washington to help end the credit crisis and jumpstart mortgage lending are going to work.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, says that the combined effect of the expanding the $7500 home buyer credit and delivering a 1% mortgage rate buy down would be incrementally increase home sales by 10 or more percent in 2009.
In our market, a 10% increase in 2009 would be 500 more homes sold…$116 million more in total sales.
The fact is, if you bought an existing home in Ada County in December 2006 for $185,000 it has appreciated 6% as of December 2008. That is not exactly wildfire returns, but it is better than my 401k has done.
Unfortunately, as predicted, all we needed was one or two negatives to push our recovery off track. The collapse of consumer confidence and near elimination of credit in October and November while unemployment rose derailed our ’08 recovery train and our November sales were under 300.
December, by the way, showed better sales than November and inventory continues to shrink.
So, where are we now and what’s going to happen next?
First…The fundamental things that make this a great place to live haven’t changed. This is still the same place that was recognized again and again in 2008 as one of the best family and business locations in the country.
Second…NAR’s efforts in Washington to help end the credit crisis and jumpstart mortgage lending are going to work.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, says that the combined effect of the expanding the $7500 home buyer credit and delivering a 1% mortgage rate buy down would be incrementally increase home sales by 10 or more percent in 2009.
In our market, a 10% increase in 2009 would be 500 more homes sold…$116 million more in total sales.
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