What is ACAR going to do to help? ACAR believes that our “real estate market” has several components:
· Activity – buying, selling, building, lending, developing
· Commodity – our products…homes, title, insurance, inspections, all of the myriad things that make up real estate
· Resource – our most valuable resource … our REALTORS
ACAR is committed to positively influencing all three components.
How can your association influence market activity? We have to find creative, effective ways to communicate the advantages of owning real estate. In conjunction with the state and national associations, an aggressive media campaign has been launched. ACAR is utilizing digital billboards that we can change instantly and often to deliver messages to the public and to you. View Billboards
We must also defend and protect the essential rights of home ownership. As you know by now, NAR’s Stimulus Plan has received positive support from Treasury and Congressional Leadership.
Locally, Miguel has initiated a group to address work force housing with NAR’s program “Home From Work”. This program partners REALTORS® with builders, legislators, consumer advocates and other businesses. You’ll hear much more about this as we move forward.
The commodity that is real estate involves many players. Your association is uniquely positioned to bring together all of them, many of whom are our Affiliate members. Were it not for the support of our Affiliate Members, we’d be hard pressed to deliver services and education REALTORS® need. Our goal is to connect these value providers to the membership in relationship based forums.
Our affiliates also are our essential partners in our community service projects. In a few minutes we’ll introduce a way that we can begin to recognize their contributions. Helping to improve resources is what we do best of all.
Our key focus is on finding ways that ACAR can support, augment and enhance the ability of our members to do business.
One such new initiative is to offer new REALTOR® training and career development in manageable units. Called “The Pinnacle Pathway to Success” it will offer a total plan for the first two years of a REALTOR®’s career. We believe that the association can augment what you are doing in your offices in a way that enhance the overall result with less cost to you.
We are looking at how we can make Association service delivery more convenient. For example, while we were pushing to get everyone through NAR’s ethics training, we discovered that for many REALTORS® evenings and weekends is the best time to get training. We’re now looking at expanding our service hours for this group of members.
We want to be the partner you look forward to working with. Then one you can depend on for good ideas. We will be there to help you in this new real estate market, this new regimen of home sales. The one you can turn to when times are tough and the one you can celebrate with when times are better. 2009 will have its challenges, but I ask you to keep this in mind…at ACAR “we’re in it for you.”
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Market Update January 2009 Part 1
In mid 2008, I told you that I believed our real estate market was very fragile but showing positive indicators. Then for the following 6 to 7 months, we had positive month over month sales. We’ve had inventory reductions for 7 straight months, and in the last 6 months our inventory has stayed below last year’s levels. That is a solid predictor of improving conditions. Our home values even held on to 96% of their value through July and they only slipped 4% in the 4th quarter. And, Idaho had the best 3rd qtr over 2nd qtr sales improvement in the country.
The fact is, if you bought an existing home in Ada County in December 2006 for $185,000 it has appreciated 6% as of December 2008. That is not exactly wildfire returns, but it is better than my 401k has done.
Unfortunately, as predicted, all we needed was one or two negatives to push our recovery off track. The collapse of consumer confidence and near elimination of credit in October and November while unemployment rose derailed our ’08 recovery train and our November sales were under 300.
December, by the way, showed better sales than November and inventory continues to shrink.
So, where are we now and what’s going to happen next?
First…The fundamental things that make this a great place to live haven’t changed. This is still the same place that was recognized again and again in 2008 as one of the best family and business locations in the country.
Second…NAR’s efforts in Washington to help end the credit crisis and jumpstart mortgage lending are going to work.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, says that the combined effect of the expanding the $7500 home buyer credit and delivering a 1% mortgage rate buy down would be incrementally increase home sales by 10 or more percent in 2009.
In our market, a 10% increase in 2009 would be 500 more homes sold…$116 million more in total sales.
The fact is, if you bought an existing home in Ada County in December 2006 for $185,000 it has appreciated 6% as of December 2008. That is not exactly wildfire returns, but it is better than my 401k has done.
Unfortunately, as predicted, all we needed was one or two negatives to push our recovery off track. The collapse of consumer confidence and near elimination of credit in October and November while unemployment rose derailed our ’08 recovery train and our November sales were under 300.
December, by the way, showed better sales than November and inventory continues to shrink.
So, where are we now and what’s going to happen next?
First…The fundamental things that make this a great place to live haven’t changed. This is still the same place that was recognized again and again in 2008 as one of the best family and business locations in the country.
Second…NAR’s efforts in Washington to help end the credit crisis and jumpstart mortgage lending are going to work.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, says that the combined effect of the expanding the $7500 home buyer credit and delivering a 1% mortgage rate buy down would be incrementally increase home sales by 10 or more percent in 2009.
In our market, a 10% increase in 2009 would be 500 more homes sold…$116 million more in total sales.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Its no lump of Coal, it’s the real deal!
Watching the final preparations for tomorrow’s historic Presidential inauguration, where more than 2 million citizens are expected to line the parade route and be in the audience to witness President Obama take the oath of office. What struck me most was the collective sense of hope and expectation we are feeling with the arrival of the new administration. Thinking back, try and find another occasion when our hopes have been so high. The closest match for me was a childhood Christmas Eve. I wanted a bicycle…I believed I was going to get one. I was already riding it in my mind. When I went to bed that night, I was certain I’d find my new bicycle in the morning…and I did.
Wednesday, when we get up, we’re still going to have the same market conditions we have today, we will also have a more hopeful attitude, because, we have not heard -until this new administration- the statement that we can fix this together. Starting tomorrow afternoon, we’re going to begin to solve this crisis together. Even though sales are still down, prices are still down, short sales and foreclosures are on the rise and the credit market is a mess. Its OK, because we’ve been there, we’ve done that, and we even got the T-shirt to prove it.
NAR is before congress this very minute explaining how our REALTOR® Stimulus plan can help. First…Give every home buyer in 2009 a $7,500 tax credit. A real credit, not a 15 year repayable loan. Second…Use some of the bailout money to enable banks to deliver below market mortgage rates to buyers. NAR brainiacs have calculated that a 1% below market rate mortgage will stimulate an additional 500,000 home sales in the first year!
Consumer confidence is at the heart of our current troubles. In ’06-’07 it was too high and we reached way beyond our means. In ’08 we woke up with a nasty hangover and our confidence eroded to an all time low. The binge is over. Its time to begin the road to recovery.
Thank goodness for REALTORS®. Who else is in the position of begin able to help buyers and sellers understand the realities of our new real estate sobriety! Lets talk reality:
Reality #1 – Neighbors are better than investors. Our market really took off on the strength of out of town investors. With that money essentially “off the table”, today’s buyers are families looking for a place to call their own. Helping these clients through the maze that is today’s mortgage process, adds one more family to our community.
Reality #2 – First time home buyers have never had it so good…or so bad. Housing affordability in Ada County is the best its been in years. But preparing a new, first time buyer for the rigors of today’s market, is a job that only a REALTOR® can do.
Reality #3 – If it walks and talks like a duck…it may be a Doberman. Are short sales the best thing to happen to today’s buyer? Maybe. Are they the worst thing to happen to today’s buyer. Maybe. Who’s going to know how to tell the real opportunity from the prolonged trail of total frustration? Only the REALTOR® who has taken the time to learn the nuances involved.
I believe, January 21st we will find that new bicycle, and we’re going to ride the heck out of it in 2009!
Wednesday, when we get up, we’re still going to have the same market conditions we have today, we will also have a more hopeful attitude, because, we have not heard -until this new administration- the statement that we can fix this together. Starting tomorrow afternoon, we’re going to begin to solve this crisis together. Even though sales are still down, prices are still down, short sales and foreclosures are on the rise and the credit market is a mess. Its OK, because we’ve been there, we’ve done that, and we even got the T-shirt to prove it.
NAR is before congress this very minute explaining how our REALTOR® Stimulus plan can help. First…Give every home buyer in 2009 a $7,500 tax credit. A real credit, not a 15 year repayable loan. Second…Use some of the bailout money to enable banks to deliver below market mortgage rates to buyers. NAR brainiacs have calculated that a 1% below market rate mortgage will stimulate an additional 500,000 home sales in the first year!
Consumer confidence is at the heart of our current troubles. In ’06-’07 it was too high and we reached way beyond our means. In ’08 we woke up with a nasty hangover and our confidence eroded to an all time low. The binge is over. Its time to begin the road to recovery.
Thank goodness for REALTORS®. Who else is in the position of begin able to help buyers and sellers understand the realities of our new real estate sobriety! Lets talk reality:
Reality #1 – Neighbors are better than investors. Our market really took off on the strength of out of town investors. With that money essentially “off the table”, today’s buyers are families looking for a place to call their own. Helping these clients through the maze that is today’s mortgage process, adds one more family to our community.
Reality #2 – First time home buyers have never had it so good…or so bad. Housing affordability in Ada County is the best its been in years. But preparing a new, first time buyer for the rigors of today’s market, is a job that only a REALTOR® can do.
Reality #3 – If it walks and talks like a duck…it may be a Doberman. Are short sales the best thing to happen to today’s buyer? Maybe. Are they the worst thing to happen to today’s buyer. Maybe. Who’s going to know how to tell the real opportunity from the prolonged trail of total frustration? Only the REALTOR® who has taken the time to learn the nuances involved.
I believe, January 21st we will find that new bicycle, and we’re going to ride the heck out of it in 2009!
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