December...at Last

To paraphrase Mark Twain…“December. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in housing in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, October, August, and February.”

Last week we read from NAR that pending homes sales were slowing. It was with some trepidation that I opened the IMLS Stats page this morning…boy was I relieved.

December sales were up 24% compared to December ’08. Total sales for 2009 were 5,558 compared to 5,144 in ’08. Overall we increased sales by 8% year-over-year.

Total homes sold in December were 378; compared to 277 in December ‘08. What a difference 12 months and a Home Buyer Tax Credit makes!

Typically sales in December lessen as the year nears end. The volatility in the housing market for the last four years makes it hard to “average the change from November to December. In December ’08, we exceeded November (but November was our worst ever month). In ’07 the December sales were off 23% from November. In ’06 the change was -10%.

December '09 sales were 32% down from October.

Pending sales in December were off only 7% from November. Not the big dip experienced nationally.

First time home buyers continue to drive our market. The announcement of the Tax Credit extension and its expansion to include current homeowners should enable us to continue to move in the positive direction. 48% of homes sold in November were <$160,000. At the same time, inventory in this price range is the lowest it’s been all year.

Median home price jumped up 4% from November to $165,000. For all of 2008, median dropped 9% (comparing January to December).

Inventory fell 6% from November to 3,428 units.

On the less positive side... distressed properties continue to hurt our friends and family. Among all active listings, 49% are either short sales, in foreclosure or REO's. 54% of all November sales were also distressed. As of today, 63% of all pending sales are also distressed.

It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that without the Home Buyer Tax credit, we wouldn’t be where we are today. And, where we are is in a “very fragile” recovery. This morning’s business report said that our unemployment went up slightly in December; and that thousands more Idahoans had stopped looking for work.

We continue to see “suggestions” that employment in the Valley might be getting incrementally better. Small to medium size employers are making the news for their successes. Our own Micron appears to have reversed the slide they’ve endured over the last 20 months.

No matter the anecdotes, we need our elected officials to work more closely with our Boise Valley Economic Partnership to find creative incentives to bring more jobs to our Valley.