July Arrives - In The Nick of Time

We had our collective fingers crossed going into July. Would the trend of month-over-month sales continue? Would the small increase in median price hold? Would the huge number of pendings (a bunch of which were shorts or REO’s) actually close?

The answer is “Yes” with a couple of exceptions.

Sales are down 8% from last month, and up 5% from this same month last year. Between ’05 and ’09, the average change from June to July was a decrease of 11%. You could say then that: “July sales outperformed the average July.” This is two months in a row with an increase over last year's same month. This reverses 35 months of sales decreases.

At the same time pending sales are continuing to increase. Last month there were 38% more Pendings than the same month last year - now there are 51% more pendings. Nearly all is on the Resale side, not new construction; but NC is now about even with last year.

Short Sales are down slightly to 14% of the total sales. REO sales are up to 19%; down from the record high of 34% in February ’09.. That makes 33% of the sales "distressed" this month. This a reduction of 11% from our high of 48% in Feb.

Median price is down 1% from last month to $175,000; and down 17% from this month last year. New Construction Median fell 11% just from last month. Down 23% from this same month last year. Resale Median is up 2% this month over last and down 15% from a year ago.

Our most active price category for 2009 YTD is $120,000 to $159,999; with 901 units sold. Second is $160,000 to $199,999 with 682 units.

For the 13th month in a row, inventory levels are below one year ago. And this is the 6th month that inventory is below the prior two years at this point! Inventory is down 3% from last month, and 18% lower than last year at this time.

New Construction is down 4% from last month’s 792. Last year at this time there were 1129 new homes for sale. New Construction inventory has dropped for 28 of the last 34 months.

Resale inventory is 3366 down from 3447 last month. Last year at this time there were 3920 resale homes for sale. July 2008 was the all time record high at 3920.

On July 31 we had 7.8 months of inventory available. January 2009 set the all time new record high at 16.7 months of inventory.

The bottom line is this…We continue to see incremental improvements as we put the first half of ’09 behind us.

First time home buyers has been what has turned our market. Perhaps now the sellers of the $120,000 to $199,999 homes will be free to take advantage of the incredible “trade up” opportunities.

One note on short sale practices…We continue to hear about more and more “creative” practices. At this point, the best advice we can give is to make sure you and your broker are on the same page with the disclosures that are being made; when and how. At the Broker’s Luncheon this week we’ll be talking with the Immediate Past President of the Idaho Mortgage Brokers Association about this and other changes effecting the lending landscape. There’s still time to register. JMclaughlin@AdaCounty-Realtors.com

Special thanks to Jere Webb for his research and insight.